2026 Calcutta — Corrections & Reshape Report
Generated by value_model.py. Summarizes the confirmed rules corrections and the $2,000 cap-anchor price reshape, then confirms which of our buy-card targets stay +edge.
1. $2,000 cap-anchor price reshape (barbell)
The $2,000 bid cap is a psychological magnet (round-number / cap anchoring). The 18 most-HYPED teams are modeled as racing to EXACTLY $2,000 (a fat spike); the rest of the field keeps a timid tail held below $1,500. Hype score = z(model price) + z(-team handicap) + a bonus for Jason targets. Total pool now $83,700 (target $82-$85k); spike = 18×$2,000 = $36,000.
These are the cap-out teams — now OVERPRICED at $2,000, AVOID (their EV-based edge goes sharply negative):
| Hype | Flight | Team | Hcp | P(win) | Est $ | Fair $ (EV) | Edge $ | Jason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.77 | 2 | Hatcher + Berry | 8.4 | 25% | $2000 | $1894 | -106 | yes |
| 3.57 | 2 | Downey + Shearer | 8.0 | 23% | $2000 | $1795 | -205 | yes |
| 2.83 | 9 | Wood + Estes | 19.3 | 43% | $2000 | $1610 | -390 | |
| 2.70 | 1 | Vola + Kerns | 5.0 | 23% | $2000 | $2439 | +439 | |
| 2.30 | 1 | McHale + Bagley | 5.2 | 18% | $2000 | $2109 | +109 | |
| 2.29 | 1 | Perry + Dye | 1.0 | 15% | $2000 | $1702 | -298 | |
| 2.08 | 1 | Pilger + Bhatia | 5.1 | 17% | $2000 | $1853 | -147 | |
| 2.08 | 1 | Terranova + Davis | 4.2 | 17% | $2000 | $1917 | -83 | |
| 1.90 | 7 | Rekenthaler + Stafford | 15.4 | 15% | $2000 | $770 | -1230 | yes |
| 1.78 | 1 | Beatty + Guiendon | 0.1 | 10% | $2000 | $1197 | -803 | |
| 1.71 | 6 | Swiger + Dahlhauser | 13.5 | 25% | $2000 | $1469 | -531 | |
| 1.69 | 3 | Burns + Preston | 8.5 | 19% | $2000 | $1733 | -267 | |
| 1.62 | 3 | Embleau + Loewenthal | 9.1 | 18% | $2000 | $1641 | -359 | |
| 1.56 | 3 | Brown + Watson | 9.1 | 17% | $2000 | $1543 | -457 | |
| 1.54 | 3 | Patterson + Shirley | 10.3 | 17% | $2000 | $1594 | -406 | |
| 1.50 | 6 | Knapp + Keister | 13.5 | 12% | $2000 | $830 | -1170 | yes |
| 1.49 | 4 | Greenspan + Horne | 11.6 | 19% | $2000 | $1052 | -948 | |
| 1.47 | 2 | Fann + Hartz | 7.9 | 15% | $2000 | $1286 | -714 |
16/18 cap-out teams have NEGATIVE EV edge at $2,000 (over the cap-anchored price). Value concentrates in the mid-tier teams that do NOT cap out — see the +edge board below.
Best value AFTER the reshape — non-capped teams with the largest +edge:
| Flight | Team | Hcp | P(win) | Est $ | Fair $ (EV) | Edge $ | Jason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vaniman + Hatz | 14.6 | 21% | $700 | $1315 | +615 | |
| 3 | Martin + Torres | 9.6 | 16% | $900 | $1483 | +583 | |
| 2 | Walsey + Walsey | 7.5 | 15% | $900 | $1295 | +395 | |
| 7 | Marjoram + Peters | 15.4 | 23% | $700 | $1084 | +384 | |
| 7 | Driggars + Richards | 15.4 | 20% | $600 | $977 | +377 | |
| 6 | Kitchens + Taylor | 14.9 | 16% | $700 | $1055 | +355 | |
| 3 | Brown + Brown | 9.0 | 12% | $800 | $1154 | +354 | |
| 6 | Foresman + Benson | 14.5 | 15% | $700 | $1041 | +341 | |
| 20 | Barnes + Smelcer | 58.1 | 33% | $200 | $456 | +256 | |
| 4 | Green + Green | 11.5 | 19% | $800 | $1041 | +241 | |
| 12 | Wright + Gadsby | 22.3 | 25% | $400 | $637 | +237 | |
| 9 | Gallagher + Hansell | 19.6 | 15% | $500 | $727 | +227 | yes |
| 7 | Thomas + Stricklin | 15.3 | 16% | $600 | $812 | +212 | |
| 5 | Pearson + Ferguson | 12.6 | 21% | $700 | $910 | +210 | |
| 10 | Fought + Fought | 20.6 | 24% | $500 | $697 | +197 |
Our buy-card (Jason) targets under the reshape
| Flight | Team | Hcp | P(win) | Est $ | Fair $ (EV) | Edge $ | Cap-out? | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gallagher + Hansell | 19.6 | 15% | $500 | $727 | +227 | BUY (+edge) | |
| 16 | Wilson + Slavis | 27.8 | 20% | $300 | $418 | +118 | BUY (+edge) | |
| 10 | Gelinas + Chafin | 19.7 | 16% | $400 | $500 | +100 | BUY (+edge) | |
| 20 | Ballard + Armstrong | 47.4 | 17% | $200 | $263 | +63 | BUY (+edge) | |
| 13 | Panessa + Ratliff | 23.1 | 17% | $400 | $432 | +32 | BUY (+edge) | |
| 16 | Wagner + Haswell | 28.1 | 20% | $400 | $413 | +13 | BUY (+edge) | |
| 16 | Goodloe + Santivanez | 26.8 | 11% | $300 | $245 | -55 | PASS (-edge) | |
| 11 | Perez + Marold | 21.5 | 15% | $500 | $441 | -59 | PASS (-edge) | |
| 2 | Hatcher + Berry | 8.4 | 25% | $2000 | $1894 | -106 | CAP $2k | AVOID at $2k (capped/overpriced) |
| 2 | Downey + Shearer | 8.0 | 23% | $2000 | $1795 | -205 | CAP $2k | AVOID at $2k (capped/overpriced) |
| 8 | Barbaree + Williford | 17.0 | 12% | $700 | $493 | -207 | PASS (-edge) | |
| 6 | Knapp + Keister | 13.5 | 12% | $2000 | $830 | -1170 | CAP $2k | AVOID at $2k (capped/overpriced) |
| 7 | Rekenthaler + Stafford | 15.4 | 15% | $2000 | $770 | -1230 | CAP $2k | AVOID at $2k (capped/overpriced) |
6/13 Jason targets retain a positive EV edge under the reshape (i.e. are NOT priced to the cap). Capped targets are now traps at $2,000 — let the room overpay.
2. 10-stroke handicap-difference cap (off the LOW player)
A 5 and a 17 now play as 5 and 15 — the high player is capped to 10 strokes over the low man in the foursome, applied in the sim's stroke allocation. This removes strokes from legit high-handicappers, so high-handicap 'bomber' teams LOSE win probability and the low-handicap teams they face GAIN. Teams whose P(win) moves most (cap ON minus cap OFF):
| Flight | Team | Locked hcp | P(win) no-cap | P(win) 10-cap | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Barnes + Smelcer | 58.1 | 38.7% | 33.4% | -5.3% |
| 20 | Ballard + Armstrong | 47.4 | 14.5% | 16.7% | +2.2% |
| 20 | King + Scales | 38.6 | 5.2% | 6.3% | +1.2% |
| 20 | Bell + Harren | 44.7 | 12.5% | 13.3% | +0.9% |
| 12 | Dudley + Cohen | 21.6 | 12.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% |
| 5 | Pearson + Ferguson | 12.6 | 21.3% | 20.7% | -0.6% |
| 20 | Pilger + Hatz | 54.2 | 24.3% | 24.9% | +0.6% |
| 11 | Richardson + Loricchio | 21.2 | 21.3% | 21.9% | +0.6% |
| 12 | Benson + Brosnahan | 23.0 | 16.0% | 15.4% | -0.6% |
| 10 | Gelinas + Chafin | 19.7 | 16.7% | 16.2% | -0.5% |
| 20 | Morge + Callahan | 41.8 | 4.8% | 5.3% | +0.5% |
| 12 | Beaver + Rhyne | 22.7 | 11.2% | 10.8% | -0.5% |
| 5 | Levin + Leaf | 12.9 | 18.8% | 19.2% | +0.4% |
| 8 | Yancey + Whaley | 16.5 | 16.0% | 15.6% | -0.4% |
| 9 | Wood + Estes | 19.3 | 42.2% | 42.6% | +0.4% |
| 4 | Powers + Merrigan | 11.4 | 14.3% | 14.0% | -0.4% |
Directional read: the cap only bites foursomes whose handicap SPREAD exceeds 10 strokes, so it is concentrated — only 10/120 teams move >0.5pt and 3 move >1pt. The clearest case is the very-high-handicap flight 20: capping Barnes + Smelcer's strokes drops them -5.3% (58.1 locked handicap, the widest gap in the field), redistributing that win probability to the lower-handicap teams in their flight. Elsewhere most foursomes already sit inside a 10-stroke spread, so the cap is a no-op and the net pot/value impact is small.
3. Cap Patrol trend sign — CONFIRMED
cap_mostImproved ≈ (index − last4): POSITIVE = recent scoring better than index = HOT = BUY. Verified against cap_hotIndex: corr = +0.96 (strongly positive), so a higher trend lines up with a higher hotness index. The enriched bid sheet exposes this as cap_trend_mean (positive = hot). This matches the data-sign note in auction_intel.md and overrides the older 'negative = improving' framing.
4. Match-play aptitude proxy (hole-level GHIN data)
Hole-level hole_details were USABLE: 215 of 240 field players had enough hole-by-hole data (≥27 holes). Match play rewards BIRDIES (win a hole outright) and grants BLOW-UP IMMUNITY (you can only lose a hole by one). So vs a smooth medal handicap we credit (a) birdie rate and (b) blow-up rate (match play caps the damage medal scoring punishes). matchplay_aptitude (team = sum of both players' z-scored proxy) is POSITIVE for teams that should OUTPERFORM their handicap in match play, NEGATIVE for steady medal grinders who UNDERPERFORM. Top over/under-performers vs handicap:
Better in match play than handicap implies (birdie-makers / streaky):
| Flight | Team | Hcp | MP aptitude | P(win) | Est $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beatty + Guiendon | 0.1 | +4.50 | 10% | $2000 |
| 1 | Perry + Dye | 1.0 | +3.98 | 15% | $2000 |
| 1 | Vola + Kerns | 5.0 | +3.70 | 23% | $2000 |
| 1 | Terranova + Davis | 4.2 | +3.39 | 17% | $2000 |
| 2 | Downey + Shearer | 8.0 | +2.51 | 23% | $2000 |
| 10 | Schmeelk + Stein | 20.5 | +2.32 | 11% | $500 |
| 1 | Pilger + Bhatia | 5.1 | +2.08 | 17% | $2000 |
| 2 | Hurst + Jordan | 7.7 | +2.00 | 12% | $1000 |
Worse in match play than handicap implies (steady medal grinders):
| Flight | Team | Hcp | MP aptitude | P(win) | Est $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hoard + Woods | 31.6 | -2.27 | 9% | $200 |
| 13 | Vazquez + Prokupek | 23.2 | -1.85 | 13% | $400 |
| 19 | Harte + Love | 35.7 | -1.83 | 17% | $200 |
| 15 | Perry + Calobrisi | 26.8 | -1.76 | 20% | $400 |
| 12 | Beaver + Rhyne | 22.7 | -1.70 | 11% | $500 |
| 17 | Bowles + Troisi | 29.2 | -1.57 | 16% | $300 |
| 19 | Truitt + Fetter | 36.0 | -1.44 | 11% | $200 |
| 9 | Kattookaran + Levitas | 19.3 | -1.44 | 13% | $500 |
This is a read-through signal (column matchplay_aptitude in team_values.csv), NOT folded into fair value — it flags teams whose match-play upside is mispriced by a medal-based handicap.
Assumptions stated
- Cap-out set: top 18 by hype score pinned to exactly $2,000; this is a behavioral projection (no actual 2026 prices). Hype = strength + low-handicap pull + Jason-target bonus.
- Timid tail scaled so the total pool lands ~$82-$85k; non-capped teams held below $1,500.
- EV fair_value (team_values.csv) is the full EV (flight prize + shootout) on raw sim probs; the enriched bid sheet's
fair_valueis FLIGHT-ONLY on SHRUNK probs (0.6·sim + 0.4·1/6). Edges in this report use the EV fair value vs the reshaped est_price. - 10-stroke cap applied as whole strokes off the low player, max 10.
- Match-play proxy uses raw hole score vs par, excluding x-holes; min 27 holes per player.