# Calcutta Live

> Calcutta Live is a 2026 member-member golf Calcutta auction analysis dossier paired with a live, real-time bidding and scoring tool used on auction night and at the course.

Calcutta Live combines two things: a phone-first **live tool** (adaptive auction assistant, live standings, shootout, score entry, sales, and a printable bid sheet) and a full **analysis dossier** of 15 reports plus two capstone documents (a one-pager and a six-pager that distill the entire project) covering the valuation methodology, the statistical and Monte-Carlo models behind every win probability, the bidding strategy, what actually predicts performance, how handicap markdowns work, competitor/game-theory intel, the model-corrections log, portfolio-level risk/P&L analysis ("can we actually win money?"), and an investor-grade memo. The site has no authentication — every view and report is public.

## Live Tool

- [Calcutta Live (app)](https://calcutta.high.green/): Real-time auction bidding assistant + live scoring — tabs for Auction, Targets, Standings, Shootout, Scores, Sales, Print, and Reports.

## Start Here — Capstone (the whole project, distilled)

- [One-Pager — Auction-Night Action Sheet](https://calcutta.high.green/one-pager): The whole project on one screen — the thesis, the buy card with walk-aways, the hard rules, the competitors, and the single mental model: the market prices the card, we price the player.
- [Six-Pager — The Whole Thesis](https://calcutta.high.green/six-pager): The comprehensive six-page synthesis — the honest verdict, what predicts performance, the edge (sandbaggers/markdowns/match-play aptitude), valuation and the buy card, competitor dynamics, and risk/sizing.

## Methodology & Models

- [How It Works (Methodology)](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/methodology): The valuation model end-to-end: how P(win), fair value, and max bids are built.
- [Statistical Analysis](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/statistics): Player and team distributions, handicap effects, and the figures behind the numbers.
- [Monte Carlo Analysis](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/montecarlo): Simulation of the net better-ball match play that drives every win probability.
- [Model Corrections](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/corrections): What changed in the model: $2k cap-anchor price reshape, the 10-stroke handicap cap, match-play aptitude, sign fixes.

## Strategy & Intel

- [What Predicts Performance](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/what_predicts): The sticky finding: the market prices the card, we price the player — money predicts the floor, not the ceiling.
- [Auction Strategy](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/strategy): Synthesized bidding strategy for our format — pots, pacing, and the adaptive engine.
- [Cap Patrol & Psychology](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/cappatrol): Reading Cap Patrol player metrics and the psychology of who beats the net.
- [How Markdowns Work](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/markdowns): How handicap markdowns actually work — USGA Exceptional Score Reduction + Cap Patrol's 5 criteria (sourced), separated from our inference.
- [Competitor Strategy](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/competitor): Rival bidders (Russ/Reynolds/Flammia/Perry), the cap-anchor room, and the auction-night exploitation playbook.
- [Matchup Analysis](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/matchups): Round-by-round matchup simulations across all 20 flights and pairings.
- [Track Records (2021–2025)](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/history): Five years of member-member history: who shows up and how flights have played.

## Can We Win? (Portfolio Risk)

- [Can We Win? — Portfolio Backtest](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/portfolio_backtest): Backtests the strategy across past years to ask the bottom-line question: does it make money?
- [Forward P&L Simulation](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/portfolio_montecarlo): Monte Carlo of this year's portfolio P&L — the distribution of outcomes we should expect.
- [Risk & Stress Test](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/portfolio_stresstest): Downside and stress scenarios: what happens to the portfolio when things go wrong.

## For Investors

- [For an Investor (Mark Cuban)](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/investor): Investor-grade evaluation — bear case first, every number sourced, the honest expected value and the ask.

## Machine-readable

- [Reports catalog (JSON)](https://calcutta.high.green/reports/index.json): Structured {title, url, description, topic} catalog of the live tool + all 15 reports.
- [Full LLM corpus](https://calcutta.high.green/llms-full.txt): This index followed by the full readable text of every report.
- [Sitemap](https://calcutta.high.green/sitemap.xml): XML sitemap of the root + all 15 clean report URLs.